“Canola futures edged higher Monday, supported by the stronger soybean complex and concern about the weather damage of the past few weeks.
Frost extended into the U.S. grain belt on the weekend, mainly in the northern and western fringe of the growing area.
But soy prices remained at multi year lows based on the expectation of bumper U.S. soybean and corn harvests.
Soy oil rallied 2.2 percent on an industry report that showed soy oil stocks at their lowest level in almost 10 years. American crushers have been hard pressed to find old crop soy to crush and have reduced operations, leading to the short term soy oil tightness.
Good weather is expected across the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Plains and Midwest this week, allowing harvest pace to pick up.
Corn edged higher on a technical bounce and short covering.
Wheat fell for the sixth session on the expectation of large global supplies and strong competition from the Black Sea region. The Russian ruble has fallen more than nine percent against the U.S. dollar since the start of July, helping make it more competitive for global buyers.
Canadian market advisors are recommending that farmers get their crops tested for grade and protein to help them plan their selling strategy and avoid disputes at elevators.”
2. Jim Prentice has been sworn in as Alberta’s new premier with a promise of change and a smaller cabinet, which includes two unelected members.
Prentice left his job as executive vice-president of CIBC to run for the Progressive Conservative leadership earlier this year. The job opened following the exit of premier Alison Redford, who resigned in March amidst spending scandals. She also resigned her seat in the legislature.
Prentice, 58, was elected in a landslide Sept. 6. A former Calgary lawyer, he entered federal politics 10 years ago and held cabinet posts in environment, industry and aboriginal affairs and northern development.
Sworn in on Sept. 15, he will handle the ministries of international and intergovernmental relations and aboriginal relations along with the premier’s duties.
He does not have a seat, and two of his new ministers are also unelected. Stephen Mandel, a former mayor of Edmonton, is minister of health, and Gordon Dirks, a former chair of the Calgary public school board, is minister of education. All will run in byelections before the fall sitting, Prentice said after his swearing in.
Verlyn Olson remains agriculture minister, which rural leaders said they appreciate. They also praised some of the changes, such as Diana McQueen moving from environment to municipal affairs.
“As expected, the U.S. corn and soybean crop condition ratings have been left unchanged from a week ago, according to the USDA Crop Progress Report Monday.
For corn, the USDA rated the crop as 74% good/excellent, equal to a week ago and ahead of the 63% five-year average. The report shows that 4% of the crop has been harvested, with 2% completed in Illinois and 12% in Missouri.
Overall, 82% of U.S. corn is in the dent stage, behind an 85% five-year average. Only 27% of the U.S. corn total production is rated as mature, behind a 39% five-year average.
Mother Nature Welcomes Midwest Harvest Season
Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities trader, says today’s report is negative for prices tonight. “I expect corn to start out 1 to 2 cents lower tonight. For soybeans, today’s report is likely to take prices 2 to 3 cents lower tonight.”
In its weekly report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean crop as 72% good/excellent, equal to a week ago and significantly ahead of a 50% five-year average.
The USDA reported that 74% of the U.S. Spring Wheat harvest is complete, compared to an 86% five-year average. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is 12% complete, vs. the 11% five-year average.”
“Global nitrogen fertilizer prices will remain ‘volatile’, with a downward bias, as the ammonia markets negotiate supply disruptions, while urea traders deal with, in the US, a ‘tidal wave’ of Chinese supplies.
A ‘spike’ in ammonia prices prompted by disruptions to natural gas supplies in Trinidad and Tobago, the top exporter of the nutrient, besides by concerns over former Soviet Union stability, looks ‘sustainable’ for now, Credit Suisse said.
‘We believe current price structures will hold as natural gas curtailments in Trinidad and Tobago continue and concerns over Eastern European supply persist,’ the bank said.
However, ‘prices will likely moderate going forward’, although potentially not until after the end of demand from the US autumn sowing period, with prices likely to average $527 in the key Tampa market in the last three months of 2014, down $20 quarter on quarter.”
“So by just how much has the US Department of Agriculture overstated the domestic area sown with corn and soybeans?
Data from the Farm Service Agency last month, based on insurance returns, gave an idea that farmers had, during a wet spring, failed to plant quite a bit less than the USDA has estimated, implying perhaps 800,000 acres in the case of soybeans, and more for corn.
(This depends on whose interpretation of the statistics you believe.)
And the FSA will unveil fresh, more accurate, forecasts today, adjusted for late returns.
‘States with large livestock herds were slow to report the participation rates in August,’ US Commodities said, foreseeing that today’s data will be used by the USDA to cut its corn sowings estimate by 750,000-1.25m acres, and soybean seedings figure by 500,000-800,000 acres.
(Others have up to 2m acres for corn.)”
“US farmers have started apace on winter wheat plantings – where they can, with a slow start to corn combining keeping Corn Belt growers on the back foot.
The first US Department of Agriculture reading of the season on progress of domestic winter wheat plantings showed 12% complete as of Sunday, a touch above the average of 11% by then.
However, analysis of the statistics shows some divide in fortunes between row crop states, where growers, and land, are still tied up with harvesting and those which have a clear run at getting winter wheat in the ground.”
“A PRELIMINARY map was created using data from MAFRD’s Ag-Weather Program that shows the Minimum Temperatures reached on September 12th.
More frost events were recorded Monday, September 15th.
More detailed weather information and the potential impact to crops will be available in Issue #20 of the Manitoba Crop Report at: http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/crops/seasonal-reports/crop-report-archive/index.html”
“Here’s another post on US food trade agreements. This is a hot topic right now but so complicated—so many agreements and policies, and so many look-alike abbreviations—that the specific policies are not easy to understand.
As I mentioned in a previous post on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, The US has trade agreements with 20 countries, and believes these provide many benefits such as ‘fueling economic growth, supporting good jobs at home, raising living standards and helping Americans provide for their families with affordable goods and services.’
Trade negotiations must create win-win situations for both partners, or they fail.
They run into trouble when one partner has higher food safety standards than another.”
A good review of a complicated subject. Mr. Harper’s already has us signed in on this one.
“ADAMA announced that NIMITZ, a novel, non-fumigant nematicide with simplified application features and unmatched user safety, has received federal registration from the US EPA.
The active ingredient in NIMITZ (fluensulfone) has a unique mode of action which categorizes the product within a new chemical classification. The US is the first country to receive a federal registration, with approved crop use on cucurbits, (including cucumbers, watermelons, cantaloupe and squash), and fruiting vegetables (tomatoes, peppers, okra and eggplants).”
“Eastman Chemical Co (EMN.N) said it will buy Taminco Corp (TAM.N) for $1.8 billion to get a key chemical used in products for the food, agricultural and water treatment markets.
Taminco’s shares rose 11 percent to $26.55, topping the offer price of $26 per share, after Eastman also gave the company 30 days to solicit alternative proposals. Eastman’s shares also rose.
‘There is a lot of optimism due to the terms of the transaction that another bidder might emerge,’ Suntrust Robinson Humphrey analyst James Sheehan said.
Eastman’s offer has the blessings of the board of both companies and that of Apollo Global Management (APO.N), Taminco’s largest shareholder with a 53.7 percent stake.
The deal will add alkylamines to Eastman’s portfolio. Alkylamines are a key ingredient to make agricultural chemicals, animal feed additives, personal care and water treatment products, among other things.
Eastman, which has been making acquisitions to expand its portfolio of specialty chemicals, said it would also assume $1 billion in debt.”